Categorías
Análisis económico

La guerra comercial sacude de nuevo / Cinco Dias

Artículo publicado originalmente en Cinco Dias.

El proteccionismo no es la mejor estrategia en un escenario de moderación del crecimiento.

Se acerca la campaña electoral en Estados Unidos y el presidente, Donald Trump, ya juega sus cartas para plantear una campaña en la que el crecimiento económico, sumado al crecimiento del empleo y las tensiones con China, tenga un papel prioritario en la misma. Y es que el propio Trump, en un escenario que, a priori, parecía cordial, vuelve a imponer nuevos aranceles a la economía asiática.

Según el think tank Peterson Institute for International Economics, el 96,7% de los productos asiáticos ya se encuentran sometidos a barreras arancelarias impuestas por el Gobierno norteamericano, lo que supone una situación comercial muy deteriorada entre ambos países, que viven, según los propias analistas de Peterson, una situación similar a la de la Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, en 1930, cuando la Gran Depresión. Una situación en la que el proteccionismo ganaba un fuerte peso tras lo ocurrido en el crac de 1929.

Mientras que antes de Trump el tipo medio de los aranceles con China se mantenía en el 3,1%, la llegada a la presidencia del magnate inmobiliario ha supuesto un incremento en el tipo medio, alzándolo hasta el 27,8%.

Es un fuerte deterioro en las relaciones comerciales entre los dos principales bloques económicos, que ha terminado por desplazar a China como principal socio comercial de Estados Unidos, y ha situado a México en su lugar.

Y es que para China la llegada de Trump al poder ha significado un completo lastre para su comercio exterior, que para el país asiático supone un gran peso de su Producto Interior Bruto. Es una economía muy abierta al comercio y que ya nota como su actividad se ralentiza ante el escenario vivido.

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Aunque su economía comenzase a desacelerarse en 2010, las tensiones comerciales han agravado la situación, llevando la economía china a registrar sus peores ritmos de crecimiento de los últimos 30 años. Una situación que ni las reformas fiscales ni las alternativas comerciales han conseguido revertir.

La economía china se desacelera, pero con ella también lo hace la economía norteamericana. El proteccionismo no es la mejor estrategia en un escenario donde los países moderan sus crecimientos y la desa­celeración se intensifica.

Menos aún en materia de comercio global, el cual supone un gran agregado al crecimiento del Producto Interior Bruto mundial. Esperemos que pronto vuelvan a retomarse las negociaciones entre ambos países, pues de no ser así, pronto podríamos experimentar una mayor intensificación en la desaceleración que puede anticipar una recesión.

Por franciscocollmorales

Estudiante de máster y economía, joven emprendedor, interesado y estudiante en el mundo de la economía y mercados bursátiles, con experiencia en el sector profesional de 2 años como business advisor y community manager en Renault España y 1 año en el sector de la gerencia, estoy en continua formación en ENAE business school , escuela de negocios internacional, con el fin de especializarme en la gestión de carteras, poder gestionar y analizar cuentas e inversiones en empresas del ámbito nacional e internacional es mi objetivo. En este mundo se está desarollando una economía cada vez más globalizada y hay que rebasar las fronteras e introducirse en nuevos mercados para crear el valor añadido y la diferenciación, y sobre todo fomentar a los emprendedores a que sigan creando PYMES (el 99'88% del tejido empresarial en España está constituido por PYMES) ya que son las que tiran de esta economía, fomentan al empleo y crean oferta, esto hará que crezca el ingreso nominal y pueda crecer el consumo, El objetivo es salir de esta recesión económica, cada vez más dura, que están sufriendo muchos países actualmente, sin movimiento económico no hay progresión de las empresas de este país.

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